My take: How the Supreme Court will rule in its two abortion cases this term
We’ve reached the season of trepidation— that time of year when we wait, with bated breath, for the Supreme Court to release its decisions. Two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the Court will release two more consequential abortion rulings. Here’s what I predict…
Moyle v. United States and Idaho v. United States
On April 24, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the combined cases Moyle v. United States and Idaho v. United States. The Court’s ruling will determine whether the lives and health of pregnant patients experiencing obstetric emergencies are protected by federal law (the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act)— or, conversely, whether a state can prevent pregnant patients from receiving the essential emergency medical treatment that federal law guarantees to all Americans.
The Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act’s “stabilizing-care requirement sets a national minimum standard for stabilizing emergency medical conditions that preempts state laws allowing a hospital to provide a lesser level of care.”1
If the Supreme Court rules in Idaho’s favor, ignoring the U.S. Constitution’s Supremacy Clause (Article VI, Clause 2), the Court will be “putting preemption on its head.”2
If the Supreme Court rules in Idaho’s favor, it will go against ~40 years of government policy and enforcement.
If the Supreme Court rules in Idaho’s favor, the Court will strip all pregnant Americans of their equal protection of the law— designating pregnant persons as sub-citizens who are bound by the laws but not protected by the laws.
If the Supreme Court rules in Idaho’s favor, the anti-abortion, conservative majority of the Court will demonstrate “with their whole chest… that they’re fine with pregnancy becoming a mass disabling event in this country, if it means that there are no abortions available.”3
Prediction: Based on the conservative justices’ questions at oral arguments, it appears the Court will rule in Idaho’s favor. The Court will likely use the spending clause to justify the ruling. I pray to God that I am wrong.
Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. FDA
On March 26, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. FDA. In a nutshell, the ruling will determine the availability of mifepristone, the first drug in the two-drug medication abortion regimen.
Prediction: Based on oral arguments, the Court will rule against the anti-abortion groups suing the FDA based on the groups’ lack of standing. This means that the Court will make no ruling regarding the merits of the anti-abortion groups’ sensational claims. Once the anti-abortion movement is able to find - or manufacture - a plaintiff/s with a better chance of having standing, a new lawsuit will be filed against the FDA. *Also, this same case could be revivified by the states who were allowed to join the case by Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk.
❗️UPDATE: The Supreme Court has ruled against the anti-abortion groups who sued the FDA, finding the groups had no standing to sue.
Brief for Former HHS Officials as Amici Curiae Supporting Respondent. March 28, 2024. (P. 3). https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-726/306169/20240328145306815_Moyle%20v.%20Idaho%20Former%20HHS%20Amicus%20Brief%20PDFA.pdf
Justice Sotomayor, transcript of oral arguments, Moyle v. United States, p. 14
https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2023/23-726_6jf7.pdf
BOOM! Lawyered, Will SCOTUS Slam the Door Shut on Pregnant ER Patients?, at 6:26.
Well you’re correct about the Mifepristone ruling a unanimous 9-0 ruling says they have no standing as of now. But they will likely be another lawsuit against the FDA about how they dispensed Mifepristone during the pandemic and of course its safety. Their scientific evidence they used has been retracted by the publication that was used to argue their case. The FDA should get another win by SCOTUS if another lawsuit is brought against them regarding the safety of the drug.